Brexit news latest brits would vote to remain if new referendum were held within 10 years, major academic report finds london evening standard secondary level education

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Shifting attitudes and an increasing acceptance of immigration mean a vote on brexit would turn out a different result than 2016’s if it was held in 2026, experts said.

The major academic report funded by the economic and social research council also revealed that voters now are being put off brexit by the government’s confusing policy.

The report is titled article 50, one year on and was written by academics from the UK in a changing europe initiative which is aimed at improving access to research on the relationship between the UK and the european union.

Set up in 2014, the initiative claims to provide an "authoritative, non-partisan and impartial reference point for those looking for information, insights and analysis about UK-EU relations."

Brexit process

A year ago, when the prime minister handed the article 50 letter to the head of the european council and triggered the formal withdrawal process, she promised to provide citizens and businesses with "as much certainty as possible, as early as possible".

It said mrs may has instead, pushed forward with a brexit process characterised by “significant political and economic uncertainty” in the past 12 months.

“uncertainty reigns,” professor anand menon, director of the UK in a changing europe, said. “this is having negative consequences for business and key sectors including agriculture, fisheries, aviation, the environment, higher education, the health service and financial services.

“the snap election of june 2017 left the conservatives without a majority in parliament and left the prime minister dependent for support on the DUP, a party committed to an intransigent position on perhaps the one issue most likely to derail the brexit negotiations—the irish border.”

european union

The study predicts that, by as early as 2021, the electorate will be in favour of remain by 52 to 48. And by 2026, the paper said the gap will have widened further, with remain leading by 54 to 46.

It says that public opinion about immigration “appears to have shifted”: “it is viewed more positively and as a much less salient issue, especially as the cabinet and country have moved in a more liberal direction.”

The report, however, concludes that there is “no clear vision of immigration policy after brexit, let alone any concrete policy decisions”, which is damaging the cause.

Writers rob ford and maria sobolewska explained that “well established demographic trends”, such as rising education levels, ethnic diversity and generational change, will influence opinion in future.

They explained: “all the leave-leaning groups, such has school-leavers, white and british-born voters, and those who grew up before britain joined the EU, are shrinking over time.Academic report

“simultaneously, all the remain-leaning groups – graduates, ethnic minorities and migrants, and the younger cohorts who came of age after the maastricht agreement – are growing.”

“many of those who voted remain in 2016 were not enthusiasts. Sixty per cent of remain voters also wanted to see the EU’s powers reduced,” they said.

“brexit has also changed views about the status quo – many [remainers] believe the result of the referendum should be respected and would not support a complete reversal of the brexit process.”

“in a context in which the two largest parties are themselves divided over brexit, it is impossible to predict how the parliamentary arithmetic will play out,” prof. Menon added.

“for the moment at least, it is hard to discern differing positions forming cracks which the UK government could attempt to turn into fissures

He added: "as if negotiating with the EU not while managing a rebellious parliament and divided cabinet were not enough, the government is also simultaneously having to negotiate with the devolved administrations.” more about: | brexit | european union | theresa may | article 50 | donald tusk